Kristian Dyer
June 25, 2024 11:32 am ET
The Big Ten is likely to expand at some point in the next handful of years, an inevitability of conference alignment and expansion in college sports.
Keep in mind that the addition of Rutgers and Maryland in 2014 kickstarted the Big Ten down this road of conference expansion.
And if the Big Ten is looking to expand, it might well be lining up for a feeding frenzy. Were the ACC to implode, it could and would mean that the entire conference is up for grabs. And the Big 12 might see panic within their ranks, making several members desirable conference expansion targets too.
Think like a Big Ten executive for a minute. What is important for the Big Ten in the next round of conference expansion and realignment?
Adding media markets, to boost the next television deal, is paramount to the Big Ten. And make no mistake about it: football is leading the way in all of this.
Now, what is the Big Ten looking for in all of this?
- Notre Dame…but let’s assume for a minute that Notre Dame truly isn’t interested in joining the Big Ten or any conference and wants to remain independent. There has been little indication that Notre Dame (or their alumni) are eager to find a dance partner in all this madness.
- Media markets to enhance the value of the league. Market size matters. The more home that the Big Ten Network gets in, the more revenue for all members.
- AAU membership, which has been a prerequisite for all expansion candidates.
- Expanding the Big Ten map (which most recently happened on the West Coast with four new additions), is key for their television partners.
Now, this means that some expansion candidates being bantered about don’t make sense. Consider that Clemson and Florida State are neither AAU members nor are in huge media markets. It also means that the Big Ten must strike the right balance and be shrewd in their accumulation of member universities.
Scroll down and check out the updated power rankings for the Big Ten in the next round of conference expansion!
6. Arizona State has a growing media market for the Big Ten
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Media Market Size: No. 11 media market
Why it makes sense: Yes, Arizona State just moved to the Big 12, but with the next round of expansion being all about media markets, Arizona State makes sense. Plus, Arizona State is the largest undergraduate population in the nation (65,492 per US News and World Report) and is an AAU member.
That’s a lot of potential eyeballs for the Big Ten Network. The market has grown by three percent in recent years.
Bobby Hurley has basketball poised for a sustained run of success and NCAA Tournament trips. Football is in a rebuild but has made nine bowl games since 2011.
A lot to consider here.
5. Duke brings a basketball powerhouse to the Big Ten
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Media Market: Charlotte is the No. 22 media market in the nation. Raleigh-Durham is No. 24.
Why it makes sense: Duke is a basketball brand, plain and simple. And while the Big Ten’s moves in recent years have been primarily about football, Duke is a juggernaut that is impossible to ignore.
They bring a truly national audience for the Big Ten Network and into the streaming equation. With the changing face of college sports, this is significant.
That Duke is solid enough in football is a plus. Their success in Olympic sports would certainly help the Big Ten as well.
But basketball, both on the court and in the Nielsen Ratings, is where Duke has the chance to be an asset to the Big Ten.
Would they leave the ACC, given their historic ties? They might be forced to if the ACC simply can’t keep pace in terms of revenue with the Big Ten and the SEC.
4. The Kansas Jayhawks are a sneaky good Big Ten expansion candidate
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Media market size: No. 33 media market.
Why it makes sense: While Kansas is a historic Big 12 team, the times are changing. And Kansas, suddenly buoyant in football, needs to keep up with these times.
Football is an asset here for the Big Ten but basketball is, like Duke above, the selling point here. So to is a very solid media market in Kansas City.
Kansas fits in from the profile of being an AAU member. If football can continue their ascend, well then Kansas has a winning resume as far as the Big Ten is concerned.
3. North Carolina is the type of national brand that the Big Ten loves
Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
Media market size: Charlotte is the No. 22 media market in the nation. Raleigh-Durham is No. 24.
Why it makes sense: Much like the addition of USC, what North Carolina (and Duke) bring in terms of their national following for basketball makes dollars and sense for the Big Ten. North Carolina basketball is arguably the biggest college basketball brand in the nation.
And while Duke and Kentucky would argue that point, there is one denying the passionate fandom…and viewership…that the Tar Heels would potentially bring to the Big Ten.
Consider also that football is solid under head coach Mack Brown and a non-revenue sports model that is top-tier and UNC is a dream school for the Big Ten.
They would be higher but would North Carolina leave the ACC, negating a deep rivalry with Duke (and NC State)? If placed in an untenable position, North Carolina would likely choose the Big Ten as their destination. But would they actively look to leave the ACC?
Lots of questions here, but no denying that this marriage makes some sense for both the Big Ten and North Carolina.
2. Miami checks off the college expansion boxes for the Big Ten
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Media market: No. 16 media market
Why it makes sense: From market size to being a national brand, Miami checks all the boxes off the field for the Big Ten (including recently becoming an AAU member).
Plus, their dissatisfaction with the ACC makes them a likely candidate to bolt from the conference.
Miami is a brand in football despite their recent downturn on the field. And men’s basketball is a very solid program. Could Miami be a potential for the Big Ten in conference re-alignment? Absolutely.
They’d deliver a bigger market than say, Florida State. And that brand is truly national for football.
Miami is close to a lock to the Big Ten if and when both parties are ready to make it happen.
1. Georgia Tech is the new frontrunner to jojn the Big Ten
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Market size: No. 10 media market
Why it makes sense: This isn’t the traditional pick that most lists have when it comes to the Big Ten. Usually, it is Miami (makes sense, see above) or Notre Dame or even Florida State (small-ish media market, not an AAU member). But Georgia Tech has it all.
Located in Atlanta, Georgia Tech brings a top-10 media market with a decent undergraduate base of over 18.000 enrolled students.
They are quite solid in football and men’s basketball.
But Atlanta is a hot market and Georgia is a growing state. The Big Ten, looking to add more value to their own media holdings, would love to add Atlanta into their mix. Getting a grip in Georgia for recruiting would be huge too.
Georgia Tech doesn’t get enough love in these lists. This is a good, solid candidate to join the Big Ten.
